Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modelling: A Sub-Compartmentalized Model of Tissue Distribution

We present a sub-compartmentalized model of drug distribution in tissue that extends existing approaches based on the well-stirred tissue model. It is specified in terms of di®erential equations that explicitly account for the drug concentration in erythrocytes, plasma, interstitial and cellular space. Assuming, in addition, steady state drug distribution and by lumping the different sub-compartments, established models to predict tissue-plasma partition coe±cients can be derived in an intriguingly simple way. This direct link is exploited to explicitly construct and parameterize the sub-compartmentalized model for moderate to strong bases, acids, neutrals and zwitterions. The derivation highlights the contributions of the different tissue constituents and provides a simple and transparent framework for the construction of novel tissue distribution models

Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modelling: A Sub-Compartmentalized Model of Tissue Distribution

We present a sub-compartmentalized model of drug distribution in tissue that extends existing approaches based on the well-stirred tissue model. It is specified in terms of di®erential equations that explicitly account for the drug concentration in erythrocytes, plasma, interstitial and cellular space. Assuming, in addition, steady state drug distribution and by lumping the different sub-compartments, established models to predict tissue-plasma partition coe±cients can be derived in an intriguingly simple way. This direct link is exploited to explicitly construct and parameterize the sub-compartmentalized model for moderate to strong bases, acids, neutrals and zwitterions. The derivation highlights the contributions of the different tissue constituents and provides a simple and transparent framework for the construction of novel tissue distribution models

Bayesian data assimilation to support informed decision-making in individualized chemotherapy

An essential component of therapeutic drug/biomarker monitoring (TDM) is to combine patient data with prior knowledge for model-based predictions of therapy outcomes. Current Bayesian forecasting tools typically rely only on the most probable model parameters (maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimate). This MAP-based approach, however, does neither necessarily predict the most probable outcome nor does it quantify the risks of treatment inefficacy or toxicity. Bayesian data assimilation (DA) methods overcome these limitations by providing a comprehensive uncertainty quantification. We compare DA methods with MAP-based approaches and show how probabilistic statements about key markers related to chemotherapy-induced neutropenia can be leveraged for more informative decision support in individualized chemotherapy. Sequential Bayesian DA proved to be most computational efficient for handling interoccasion variability and integrating TDM data. For new digital monitoring devices enabling more frequent data collection, these features will be of critical importance to improve patient care decisions in various therapeutic areas

Cell‐level systems biology model to study inflammatory bowel diseases and their treatment options

To help understand the complex and therapeutically challenging inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs), we developed a systems biology model of the intestinal immune system that is able to describe main aspects of IBD and different treatment modalities thereof. The model, including key cell types and processes of the mucosal immune response, compiles a large amount of isolated experimental findings from literature into a larger context and allows for simulations of different inflammation scenarios based on the underlying data and assumptions. In the context of a large and diverse virtual IBD population, we characterized the patients based on their phenotype (in contrast to healthy individuals, they developed persistent inflammation after a trigger event) rather than on a priori assumptions on parameter differences to a healthy individual. This allowed to reproduce the enormous diversity of predispositions known to lead to IBD. Analyzing different treatment effects, the model provides insight into characteristics of individual drug therapy. We illustrate for anti‐TNF‐α therapy, how the model can be used (i) to decide for alternative treatments with best prospects in the case of nonresponse, and (ii) to identify promising combination therapies with other available treatment options

Translational Pharmacometric Evaluation of Typical Antibiotic Broad-Spectrum Combination Therapies Against Staphylococcus Aureus Exploiting In Vitro Information

Broad-spectrum antibiotic combination therapy is frequently applied due to increasing resistance development of infective pathogens. The objective of the present study was to evaluate two common empiric broad-spectrum combination therapies consisting of either linezolid (LZD) or vancomycin (VAN) combined with meropenem (MER) against Staphylococcus aureus (S. aureus) as the most frequent causative pathogen of severe infections. A semimechanistic pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) model mimicking a simplified bacterial life-cycle of S. aureus was developed upon time-kill curve data to describe the effects of LZD, VAN, and MER alone and in dual combinations. The PK-PD model was successfully (i) evaluated with external data from two clinical S. aureus isolates and further drug combinations and (ii) challenged to predict common clinical PK-PD indices and breakpoints. Finally, clinical trial simulations were performed that revealed that the combination of VAN-MER might be favorable over LZD-MER due to an unfavorable antagonistic interaction between LZD and MER

Deriving mechanism-based pharmacodynamic models by reducing quantitative systems pharmacology models: An application to warfarin

Quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) models integrate comprehensive qualitative and quantitative knowledge about pharmacologically relevant processes. We previously proposed a first approach to leverage the knowledge in QSP models to derive simpler, mechanism-based pharmacodynamic (PD) models. Their complexity, however, is typically still too large to be used in the population analysis of clinical data. Here, we extend the approach beyond state reduction to also include the simplification of reaction rates, elimination of reactions, and analytic solutions. We additionally ensure that the reduced model maintains a prespecified approximation quality not only for a reference individual but also for a diverse virtual population. We illustrate the extended approach for the warfarin effect on blood coagulation. Using the model-reduction approach, we derive a novel small-scale warfarin/international normalized ratio model and demonstrate its suitability for biomarker identification. Due to the systematic nature of the approach in comparison with empirical model building, the proposed model-reduction algorithm provides an improved rationale to build PD models also from QSP models in other applications

Nonparametric goodness-of-fit testing for parametric covariate models in pharmacometric analyses

The characterization of covariate effects on model parameters is a crucial step during pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic analyses. While covariate selection criteria have been studied extensively, the choice of the functional relationship between covariates and parameters, however, has received much less attention. Often, a simple particular class of covariate-to-parameter relationships (linear, exponential, etc.) is chosen ad hoc or based on domain knowledge, and a statistical evaluation is limited to the comparison of a small number of such classes. Goodness-of-fit testing against a nonparametric alternative provides a more rigorous approach to covariate model evaluation, but no such test has been proposed so far. In this manuscript, we derive and evaluate nonparametric goodness-of-fit tests for parametric covariate models, the null hypothesis, against a kernelized Tikhonov regularized alternative, transferring concepts from statistical learning to the pharmacological setting. The approach is evaluated in a simulation study on the estimation of the age-dependent maturation effect on the clearance of a monoclonal antibody. Scenarios of varying data sparsity and residual error are considered. The goodness-of-fit test correctly identified misspecified parametric models with high power for relevant scenarios. The case study provides proof-of-concept of the feasibility of the proposed approach, which is envisioned to be beneficial for applications that lack well-founded covariate models

A continued learning approach for model-informed precision dosing: Updating models in clinical practice

Model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) is a quantitative dosing framework that combines prior knowledge on the drug-disease-patient system with patient data from therapeutic drug/ biomarker monitoring (TDM) to support individualized dosing in ongoing treatment. Structural models and prior parameter distributions used in MIPD approaches typically build on prior clinical trials that involve only a limited number of patients selected according to some exclusion/inclusion criteria. Compared to the prior clinical trial population, the patient population in clinical practice can be expected to also include altered behavior and/or increased interindividual variability, the extent of which, however, is typically unknown. Here, we address the question of how to adapt and refine models on the level of the model parameters to better reflect this real-world diversity. We propose an approach for continued learning across patients during MIPD using a sequential hierarchical Bayesian framework. The approach builds on two stages to separate the update of the individual patient parameters from updating the population parameters. Consequently, it enables continued learning across hospitals or study centers, because only summary patient data (on the level of model parameters) need to be shared, but no individual TDM data. We illustrate this continued learning approach with neutrophil-guided dosing of paclitaxel. The present study constitutes an important step toward building confidence in MIPD and eventually establishing MIPD increasingly in everyday therapeutic use

Quantitative relationship between infliximab exposure and inhibition of C‐reactive protein synthesis to support inflammatory bowel disease management

Aim Quantitative and kinetic insights into the drug exposure‐disease response relationship might enhance our knowledge on loss of response and support more effective monitoring of inflammatory activity by biomarkers in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) treated with infliximab (IFX). This study aimed to derive recommendations for dose adjustment and treatment optimisation based on mechanistic characterisation of the relationship between IFX serum concentration and C‐reactive protein (CRP) concentration. Methods Data from an investigator‐initiated trial included 121 patients with IBD during IFX maintenance treatment. Serum concentrations of IFX, antidrug antibodies (ADA), CRP, and disease‐related covariates were determined at the mid‐term and end of a dosing interval. Data were analysed using a pharmacometric nonlinear mixed‐effects modelling approach. An IFX exposure‐CRP model was generated and applied to evaluate dosing regimens to achieve CRP remission. Results The generated quantitative model showed that IFX has the potential to inhibit up to 72% (9% relative standard error [RSE]) of CRP synthesis in a patient. IFX concentration leading to 90% of the maximum CRP synthesis inhibition was 18.4 μg/mL (43% RSE). Presence of ADA was the most influential factor on IFX exposure. With standard dosing strategy, ≥55% of ADA+ patients experienced CRP nonremission. Shortening the dosing interval and co‐therapy with immunomodulators were found to be the most beneficial strategies to maintain CRP remission. Conclusions With the generated model we could for the first time establish a robust relationship between IFX exposure and CRP synthesis inhibition, which could be utilised for treatment optimisation in IBD patients